The closing quarter of 2025 presents one of the most complex and multi-layered marine risk environments of the past decade. Hull & Machinery (H&M) pricing continues to soften for clean, well-managed fleets, while War Risk enters a new, intensified cycle shaped by geopolitical volatility, asymmetric warfare, insurgent activity, piracy resurgence, sanctions-related tension, and shifting underwriting appetite.
Last week, our exclusive partner Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) released the Hull & Machinery and War Risk Market Update – Q4 2025, offering a sharp, region-by-region view of how global pressures are reshaping underwriting behaviour. What emerges is a striking message: two markets, one world — and zero room for isolated risk management.
Below is a harmonised and expanded overview built from the AJG report.
- Middle East — Ceasefire, Fragile Stability, and Persistent Threats
Despite a US-brokered ceasefire in Gaza, the Middle East remains the emotional and strategic epicentre of global marine war risk. The first steps of a fragile, multi-stage peace framework have eased certain hotspots, yet threat levels remain elevated throughout the Eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Gulf.
High-profile losses — including MV Eternity C and MV Magic Seas — highlight how exposed merchant vessels remain to asymmetric warfare.
Recent incidents reinforce this instability:
29 September 2025 — Minervagracht struck by projectiles in the Gulf of Aden, causing a fire and one fatality.
14 November 2025 — Talara seized by Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first such seizure since 2024.
While Houthi operations have temporarily eased, the risk environment remains conditional and reversible, and insurers continue to adopt a cautious, intelligence-led approach.
- Africa — Somali Piracy Resurges and Insurgency Pushes Northward
Africa presents two distinct but serious fronts of concern: Somali piracy and Islamic State insurgency in Mozambique.
Somali piracy has resurged after years of reduced activity, fuelled by the redeployment of naval assets to the Red Sea. Key incidents include:
2 November 2025 — Intertuna Tres approached by a high-speed skiff.
3 November 2025 — Stolt Sagaland attacked approximately 350nm off Mogadishu; armed guards repelled the assault.
6 November 2025 — Hellas Aphrodite hijacked after RPG and machine-gun fire; crew sheltered in the citadel until EU NAVFOR intervention.
Although no casualties occurred, the threat level has materially escalated. Kidnap & Ransom (K&R) insurance requirements are tightening accordingly.
In Mozambique, Islamic State Mozambique (IS-M) has intensified operations across Nampula and Cabo Delgado, displacing more than 100,000 civilians. Maritime exposure remains limited for now, but insurers call for continuous monitoring as escalating violence approaches coastal zones.
- Russia–Ukraine — Ceasefire Gains Undone by Drone Warfare
After the March 2025 maritime ceasefire, Black Sea War Risk premiums had stabilised and even declined — until November 2025. A series of long-range Ukrainian drone strikes targeted key Russian oil infrastructure:
2 November — Tuapse terminal hit, damaging three tankers.
9 November — Second drone wave strikes Tuapse.
14 November — Novorossiysk refinery and port attacked; infrastructure ablaze and crew injured.
Underwriters expect a Russian response that could further destabilise the region. As a result, the most competitive insurers have sharply increased additional premiums, while more conservative markets have applied moderate upward adjustments. Navigational and geopolitical risks are climbing simultaneously, and shipowners are urged to remain highly vigilant.
- Venezuela — U.S.–Caracas Confrontation Escalates Marine Exposure
Tensions between the United States and Venezuela intensified significantly through Q4 2025. Key developments include:
• U.S. accusations that President Maduro leads an organised crime network.
• The destroyer USS Gravely positioned roughly 25 miles from Venezuelan waters.
• Seven U.S. strikes on vessels allegedly involved in narcotics trafficking, resulting in 32 fatalities.
• CIA authorisation for lethal covert operations within Venezuela.
Although War Risk underwriters have not yet adjusted premiums, the market warns that any escalation — including confrontation at sea or attacks on merchant vessels — would trigger immediate pricing changes. Venezuelan waters should now be treated as a developing high-risk corridor.
- Casualty Report 2025 — Four Technical Signals the Industry Cannot Ignore
Beyond geopolitical pressures, 2025 brought several high-impact technical incidents that reveal systemic vulnerabilities across an ageing global fleet:
MV Pumba — Engine Room Fire (29 July): highlights maintenance gaps and machinery fatigue; increased repair costs and off-hire exposure.
Thamesborg — Grounding (6 September): reinforces the need for precise navigation and shallow-water intelligence.
Marie Maersk — Container Fire (19 August): tied to hazardous cargo or misdeclared goods; supports integrated H&M + P&I + cargo risk strategies.
Grande Roma — ER Fire & Loss of Propulsion (25 October): dual technical failure highlighting shipyard bottlenecks and inflationary repair burdens.
These incidents illustrate a clear pattern: technical fragility intersects directly with geopolitical volatility, amplifying risk across regions.
- The Strategic Lesson of 2025 — Integration Is Non-Negotiable
Across the Middle East, Africa, Russia–Ukraine, and Venezuela, one message is unmistakable: marine risk can no longer be compartmentalised. Not technical vs. geopolitical, not local vs. global.
H&M may be softening, but insurgency, piracy, drone warfare, sanctions, and state confrontation are reshaping War Risk exposure at speed.
To navigate 2026 successfully, shipowners must integrate:
• H&M technical assessment
• War Risk geopolitical mapping
• Route-specific exposure modelling
• Maintenance as a strategic opportunity
• Casualty trends as predictive signals
• Selective use of IV, LOH, and Builder’s Risks
This unified approach is essential. At Cincotti & Partners, this integration — H&M intelligence, War Risk mapping, and casualty-trend analysis — forms the core of how we guide shipowners and operators.
If you require deeper insight into the AJG report or a tailored assessment for your fleet, we are available to support you directly.
Full AJG report:
https://specialty.ajg.com/marine-cargo/hull-and-machinery-market-update-q4-2025
Knowledge, precision, responsibility — every day in shipping and beyond.
Hashtags:
#MaritimeInsights #HullAndMachinery #WarRisk #CasualtyReport #MarineUnderwriting #ShippingStrategy #RiskManagement #Geopolitics #FleetManagement #SafetyAtSea #InsuranceLeadership #FutureOfShipping #OperationalRisk #MaritimeSecurity
